EL CISNE NEGRO DE PUTIN

Paul Craig Roberts*

El Dr. Paul Craig Roberts ad- virtió en una en- trevista con King World News que si Rusia quiere, puede provocar una serie aterradora de eventos que pondrían de rodillas al siste-

ma financiero occidental.

Estaba escuchando las noti- cias de hoy (en EEUU) y había un montón de tipos felices pavoneándose de que finalmente habían pisoteado a Rusia, dici- endo que ‘Rusia está acabada”, y que pronto sería un estado vasal- lo de EE.UU., al cuál pertenece. Y yo pensaba: “¿Cómo puede haber gente tan absolutamente estúpida?”

Pero realmente existen: son así

de estúpidos en Washington.

Supongamos que el gobierno ruso dice, “Bueno, ya que el ataque contra el rublo es algo de carácter político y ustedes están atacando el rublo y causándonos muchos problemas, entonces, nosotros simplemente, no va- mos a pagar el próximo tramo de nuestra deuda que vence a principios en 2015′′

Bueno, si hicieran eso, el siste- ma bancario europeo se derrum- baría, porque muchos de esos bancos europeos están terrible- mente descapitalizados. Algunos de ellos tienen préstamos con

Rusia que casi absorben toda la base de su capital. Así que los rusos ni siquiera tienen que caer en impago. Simplemente tienen que decir: “No vamos a pagar este año. Vamos a hacerlo más tarde. Lo haremos cuando el rublo se estabilice”

Puede comprender el impacto que tendría tal decisión en occi- dente, teniendo en cuenta todos los vínculos e interconexiones que hay en el mundo económico actual. Recordemos que cuando cayó Lehman Brothers, provocó casi tantos efectos adversos en Europa como lo hizo en Estados Unidos.

Hay todo tipo de derivados y permutas de incumplimiento crediticio por todas partes. Sabe- mos que estos derivados repre- sentan actualmente varias veces el Producto Interior Bruto mun- dial al completo.

Y nadie sabe realmente quién y hasta qué punto está entrampado en inversiones de este tipo. Si los bancos europeos comienzan a bajar, ¿quién puede saber que impacto causaría este montón de derivados sobre el resto de la economía mundial?

Todo el sistema occidental es un gran castillo de naipes. No está basado en nada más que manipulación del mercado. Por lo tanto, no hace falta empujar demasiado para derribarlo todo. Pero la mayor maniobra de los

rusos, si se ponen muy furio- sos, consistiría en llamar a los gobiernos europeos y decirles: “Ya no vendemos gas natural o cualquier otra forma de fuente de energía a los miembros de la OTAN”

La consecuencia de una decisión como ésta sería el colapso total de la OTAN. Ni siquiera un es- tado títere como Alemania va a dejar que su gente se muera de frío, ni permitirá que sus fábricas cierren y la tasa de desempleo llegue al 40%. Por lo tanto, to- das las cartas están en manos de Putin y Washington opuede hacer bien poco al respecto. Putin va a reorientar a Rusia ha- ciaeleste.VeremoscomoRusia, India y China, asumen el lide- razgo del mundo.

Algo que comenzará este año 2015.
* Paul Craig Roberts, econo- mista, escritor y periodista con- servador estadounidense que ocupó el cargo de subsecretario del Tesoro en la administración Reagan.

Fuentes: com/paul-craig-roberts-russia- unleash-ultimate-black-swan- west/ checkmate-is-russia-selling- oil-for-gold/ news/2014-12-19/just-what- china-buying

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