Una nueva crisis financiera sería inevitable en dos años

 ¿Cuándo sucederá, cuánto durará y qué tan destructiva será?

New York, 21 sep 2018.- Diez años después del comienzo de la gran recesión mundial, cuyas consecuencias aún se sienten, analistas bancarios e inversionistas advierten que una nueva crisis puede estallar en cuestión de años.

 

En septiembre de 2008, en medio de un empeoramiento de la crisis de las hipotecas, el gobierno de EE.UU. se atrevió a dar un paso histórico: permitió que uno de los bancos de inversiones más grandes del mundo, Lehman Brothers, se declarara en bancarrota. En cuestión de días, las ondas de choque paralizaron a la aseguradora más grande de la nación, desencadenaron una fuga de fondos del mercado monetario y finalmente provocaron una crisis financiera de escala mundial.

 

La economía global todavía está experimentando las consecuencias de ese colapso, según datos recogidos por Bloomberg. Así, la deuda pública en muchos países es superior a la de los años previos a la crisis de 2007 y la deuda pública global alcanzó un nuevo record de 237 billones de dólares. Aunque el mundo ya ha superado, según muchos expertos, lo que fue la recesión más profunda desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial, las tasas de crecimiento del PIB siguen siendo bastante moderadas, y la tasa de desempleo se mantiene muy alta.

Es natural que los expertos pregunten sobre la inevitabilidad de una nueva crisis financiera. Por tanto, los analistas del banco más grande de EE.UU., JP Morgan Chase, han desarrollado un modelo que estima el momento y la profundidad de la próxima caída en los mercados financieros, recoge Fortune. El modelo hace cálculos basándose en la expansión económica, la duración potencial de la próxima recesión, los precios de los activos, el nivel de desregulación, la innovación financiera antes de la crisis…

De acuerdo con sus estimaciones, una nueva crisis puede suceder ya en 2020. Dará lugar, entre otras cosas, a la caída del mercado de valores de EE.UU. en un 20 %, la reducción de los precios de la energía y los metales (en un 35 % y 29 %, respectivamente), así como a la caída de las acciones de los mercados emergentes en un 48 % y sus monedas en más del 14 %.

 

La escala de la nueva crisis no será tan grande como hace 10 años, según los cálculos de JP Morgan Chase, pero los expertos no pueden predecir su duración.

Sin embargo, la situación puede complicar la llamada ‘gran crisis de liquidez’, pronosticada por un analista de JP Morgan Chase, Marco Kolanovich. En esas condiciones, en caso de una caída en los mercados, es posible que los inversores no puedan invertir en activos más baratos. Como resultado, según Kolanovich, la nueva recesión podría llevar a disturbios sociales similares a las protestas de 1968.

 

Faltan dos años

El multimillonario e inversor estadounidense Ray Dalio, fundador de Bridgewater Associates, la mayor firma de fondos de cobertura del mundo, también advirtió que la próxima crisis financiera puede estallar en los siguientes dos años. Y según él, puede ser mucho más grave que la recesión de hace una década y será más difícil de superar.

Dalio comparó la situación actual con 1935-1940 y con la crisis anterior, que dio comienzo a la Gran Depresión. Por ello aconsejó a los inversores que tomen una posición defensiva.

 

Anteriormente, el inversionista George Soros también aseveró en mayo de este año que el mundo está amenazado por una “inevitable” crisis financiera, de la cual Europa sufrirá más que otros. “Todo lo que podía salir mal, salió mal”, anunció el inversor, quien citó entre las causas de una posible recesión el fortalecimiento del dólar estadounidense frente al euro, la salida de capitales de los mercados emergentes, el colapso del acuerdo nuclear con Irán y la “desintegración territorial” (refiriéndose al Brexit).

 

A su vez, el ex primer ministro británico Gordon Brown explicó que el mundo está “deslizándose hacia una nueva crisis financiera”, ya que no pudo resolver los problemas que determinaron la recesión de hace 10 años, según reseñó The Guardian. Brown agregó que la cooperación de los gobiernos y los bancos centrales, que se observó en 2008, es irreal hoy, puesto que los países se dedican a la búsqueda de culpables y se responsabilizan mutuamente.

El principal obstáculo para la cooperación internacional, según Brown, son las políticas proteccionistas del presidente Donald Trump, que desataron una guerra comercial no sólo con China, sino también con los socios europeos.

El empresario e inversor norteamericano Warren Buffet también apuntó recientemente en una entrevista con CNBC que una nueva crisis es inevitable, y la razón es la naturaleza humana, la envidia y la codicia.

 

(Foto leyenda)

Sede de JP Morgan Chase Bank en Manhattan, Nueva York, EE. UU., 13 de noviembre de 2017. / Amr Alfiky / Reuters

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